Our eleventh bulletin focuses on the troubling consequences of the existing skills shortages and current unpredictable economic circumstances
On 17 November, Edge hosted a breakfast session at the Learning and Work Institute’s Employment and Skills Convention 2022.
Bringing together a fantastic panel of experts, employers and education professionals, we reviewed some of the latest research into the UK’s skills landscape. While skills can be a challenging topic, especially in tough economic times, the discussion also identified some positive opportunities for the future.
Open University’s Business Barometer Survey
Phil Kenmore, Director of Corporate Development and Partnerships at Open University (OU), shared findings from the OU’s sixth annual Business Barometer Survey, in partnership with the British Chambers of Commerce, which compiled views from around 1,300 employers.
Although the survey took place in spring 2022 (before much of the current economic turmoil) 68% of organisations still felt impacted by skills shortages. The problem is particularly acute for SMEs that lack the resources and flexibility of larger organisations. The rise in remote learning has also disproportionately affected small businesses. 42% of larger employers (250+) said remote working had attracted new people to their business. But only 12% of SMEs felt the same. Overall, employers said skills shortages will impact future growth plans, employee health, well-being and productivity, and diversity and environmental targets.
Despite these stark insights, Phil noted some opportunities, too. One way businesses can grasp opportunities for reskilling is by planning ahead for post-recession growth. He also suggested SMEs could solve some of the issues by positioning themselves as unique job providers within their sectors.
Youth Employment UK’s Youth Voice Census
Youth Employment UK exists to give young people a seat at the policymaking table. CEO Laura-Jane Rawlings shared insights from the latest Youth Voice Census. Published in September, it compiles young people’s (11-30) experiences relating to school, college, apprenticeships and work.
The 2022 census highlighted the extent of the mental health emergency. Every age group surveyed identified mental health and anxiety as their greatest barriers to work – a growing trend that has become the number one problem. It results from the perfect storm of Covid isolation, poor careers education and lack of work experience due to the pandemic. Simultaneously, mental health services are underfunded and facing incredible pressure.
Sadly, the census also found that difference equals disadvantage. Young people from marginalised groups, especially LGBTQ+, BAME, care leavers and those from economically disadvantaged backgrounds, found themselves accessing fewer opportunities than their peers. Those in less developed or rural regions also found it extremely hard to access high-quality work and apprenticeships in their area.
While these insights are hard to hear, they are a necessary tincture if we wish to devise workable solutions. It’s too easy in policymaking circles to forget that ‘youth voice’ is not a single, homogeneous group. Youth Employment UK is doing excellent work in this area.
National Foundation for Educational Research’s Skills Imperative 2035
The National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) is undertaking a five-year research programme, Skills Imperative 2035. It aims to identify the essential employment skills young people will need in the future. The research is led by NFER’s Jude Hillary, with Edge’s Olly Newton taking us through some of the key themes at the event.
One was the impact of the increasing rates of automation, which is disproportionately affecting workers with lower-skilled jobs – particularly in areas such as production, manufacturing and administration. However, artificial intelligence will also impact higher skilled jobs.
Around 1.5% of the manufacturing workforce in the EU has already been displaced by technology and 22 per cent of current workforce activities across the EU could be automated by 2030. Meanwhile, future essential employment skills will focus on things computers cannot do, like problem solving/decision making, critical thinking/analysis, communication, collaboration, creativity and innovation.
NFER’s recent long term labour market projections also identified some opportunities. Thanks to several megatrends including technological advances and demographic change, there are predicted to be 2.6 million new jobs by 2035, with an estimated 350,000 in the health sector alone. If we start planning to support essential skills development of young people, as well as those already in the workforce now, we can leverage these opportunities. However, the government must adopt a more joined-up and long term approach.
A positive note from education and employers
Edge’s Senior Researcher, Kat Emms, connected the themes of the discussion to Edge’s wider work on skills shortages and we also heard from James Norris, Assistant Principal of Walsall College and employer partner Naomi Bates from Balfour Beatty Vinci (BBV). While both agreed with the challenges outlined by our research colleagues, they also wanted to offer some hope. James noted that Covid-19 forced more collaborative working with partners. These relationships, he said, have persisted. They are now paying dividends, with colleges and training partners demonstrating a willingness to adopt new approaches.
Meanwhile, Naomi shared some positive experiences as a participating partner in the new construction sector T-level pilot. While these qualifications remain relatively new, she said many T-Level work experience students subsequently received BBV apprenticeship offers. The organisation is now looking to expand the T-level programme it offers students, in areas such as digital.
While the discussion highlighted some concerning issues, the worst projected outcomes are not inevitable. By jointly addressing these problems, it is eminently possible for policymakers, employers, education providers and the government to prepare the workforce for the future, whatever it holds.